Thursday, September 30, 2010

Place Your Bets

I came across an interesting site the other day and thought I'd give it the spotlight for a minute. The site goes by the name of www.longbets.org, and it gives people the option to make bets on long term predictions on anything from what population will be like in 2060, to when the world will reach 'peak oil', to if there will be a casino on the moon by 2040. Some of them are obviously more absurd then others, and if you think they are in fact absurd you can bet against them. I personally just bet against a casino being on the moon by 2040, especially with the debates going on about NASA's budget (http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/09/23/is-a-budget-cut-in-nasas-future/). One of the more high profile cases I came across was a prediction made by Warren Buffett, the ultimate speculator, which reads as follows:


DURATION 10 years (02008-02017)
“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
PREDICTOR
Warren Buffett
CHALLENGER
Protege Partners, LLC
STAKES $1,000,000
will go to Girls Incorporated of Omaha if Buffett wins,
or Friends of Absolute Return for Kids, Inc if Protege Partners, LLC wins.

Obviously, not all of the bets are this high stake, but it's interesting to see a site that has you betting towards, presumably, the future you want to see; or at least the one you think you might see. To me this beats sports betting any day. Anyways, what kinds of predictions do you guys have for the future? What do you worry about, and what do you look forward to?

5 comments:

  1. that's honestly really cool. I wonder if they properly enforce payment?

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  2. Might actually be interested in this.
    Great post, robot.

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  3. I've been looking for this for a long time!

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